Predicting success is incredibly difficult. Think about the NFL. The top draft picks often don’t turn into the stars of the league. How is it possible that a majority of those who follow football and are considered “smart” choose a group of players they believe will be stars and get it almost dead wrong. How do these experts miss it on Dak Prescott, Tom Brady or even Aaron Rodgers? Were there really better players?
This dilemma happens in business too. For instance, many who are hired into training programs at large financial firms are hired because of their potential to succeed. Hundreds of thousands of dollars later, less than 15% of them survive past 3 years.
Perhaps the problem is in part the raw talent. The raw talent is easy to see and may actually be a blinding factor giving false hope. What if one of the big problems with predicting success is the ability to predict someone’s ability to overcome challenges?
However, I don’t believe it is simply one thing that predicts success. It would be easy if it were just talent or the ability to overcome challenges. In fact, I believe that successful salespeople, professionals and yes, athletes, may result from a fully mixed cocktail of combinations. From watching some wildly successful and unrelenting professionals, it seems success comes from a mix of raw talent, the passion to win, the proven mental toughness to get through difficult situations, instinctual decision-making, and mentoring. What do you think?